Q4 2025: The Quarter That Started with Silence

This article is brought to you and written by FBS.

Introduction

October 2025 began with unprecedented radio silence from Washington.

The US government shutdown has frozen key economic reporting—no CPI, no NFP, no inflation updates—leaving the Federal Reserve effectively blind.
Without data, the Fed can’t confirm inflation trends or justify policy moves, leaving global markets in a lurch.

The silence didn’t create a void—it created a mirror. Prices now reflect what data no longer shows. With no official signals to follow, investors now treat markets themselves as data, where every move in Bitcoin, gold, or bond yields becomes a proxy for the missing indicators. Q4 2025 is starting out as a quarter where markets learn to move without liquidity.

The Liquidity Vacuum—When Money Exists but Visibility Doesn’t

Liquidity hasn’t vanished—it’s just gone unmeasured. While policymakers remain silent, capital keeps circulating through the system, searching for assets that can absorb excess cash. The global M2 liquidity index, which tracks money supply across the US, Europe, Japan, China, and the UK, remains elevated yet increasingly disconnected from policy communication. This gap between monetary reality and institutional awareness defines the current quarter: liquidity is abundant, but confidence in its direction has evaporated.

For months, analysts observed a consistent pattern—Bitcoin trailing the M2 index by several weeks. Now, with the index shifted forward by ten weeks, the two are finally aligned. BTC is no longer following liquidity; it’s moving with it—a sign that markets have internalized the flow even without official confirmation. When money moves but no one reports it, prices become the only map investors have left.

Visual: Bitcoin vs. 10-week-lead Global M2 Liquidity Index on 09/10/25 

Stagflation Risk—The Fear of Doing Nothing

With inflation refusing to fade and growth visibly slowing, the word stagflation is creeping back into Fed conversations. Federal Reserve Presidents such as Neel Kashkari and Mary Daly have already warned that prices are rising for the wrong reasons—supply constraints, not demand—leaving monetary policy cornered. Normally, the Fed would rely on new data to decide whether to tighten or ease, but the shutdown has clouded the picture for them.

Now the danger isn’t action—it’s inaction. The longer the data blackout lasts, the more markets assume that policymakers are frozen in place. That vacuum of policy guidance  pushes investors toward assets that are considered hedges against fiat. Gold is one of them, but Bitcoin is becoming the other—a self-adjusting asset in a system that can’t adjust itself.

Crypto is thriving in uncertainty because uncertainty has become policy. When the world’s most powerful central bank goes silent, the market doesn’t panic—it simply looks elsewhere for safe-heaven.

The September Reset—Cleansing Before Confidence

In the second half of September, the crypto market went through a large-scale shakeout. Between September 20 to September 30, total liquidations exceeded $5 billion, according to Coinglass data. The largest wave came from long positions as Bitcoin dropped by more than 7% within a few days.

The correction reset funding rates and open interest across major exchanges, marking one of the most significant position flushes of 2025 so far.

Coinglass—Total Liquidations Chart (BTC, September 2025)

Following that purge, Bitcoin quickly recovered and broke to new all-time highs in early October, rising above $126,000. The breakout looked like confirmation that the market had cleared out weak hands and was ready to continue higher.

But the relief didn’t last long. Just days after setting up the new ATH, on October 10, crypto faced an even larger liquidation event—nearly $19 billion in open positions were wiped out in a single session. The scale was unprecedented, catching both longs and shorts in the crossfire.

This second flush left the market almost completely deleveraged—liquidity rebuilt, sentiment neutralized, and positioning reset on both sides. It now forms a solid foundation for a major directional move, whichever way the next breakout unfolds.

Institutions With Limited Options—ETF Flows Without New Approvals

The US government shutdown has frozen not only macro data but also the regulatory pipeline. Several pending ETF applications remain on hold until federal operations resume. No new crypto ETFs are expected to be approved in October so far.

Still, existing funds could continue to attract inflows as institutional liquidity contemplates limited exposure options. With rate decisions on pause and risk appetite gradually returning, ETFs act as one of the few regulated entry points for large capital.

That combination—no new approvals, but possible inflows into existing ETFs—could define Q4’s institutional behavior: a market running with limited options, guided not by policy or innovation, but by liquidity momentum itself.

Bitcoin Technical Outlook—The Final Decision Zone

Bitcoin’s weekly structure has been forming a rising wedge since August 2024, gradually narrowing the range between higher lows and static highs. The pattern now sits at a critical crossroads, with support near $102,000 and resistance around $131,000—the final compression zone before a major move.

Momentum continues to fade. Since March 2024, the RSI has been printing lower highs, forming a clear bearish divergence against price—a warning that underlying strength is eroding even as new highs are tested.

From here, the next few weeks will likely define the entire 2025 cycle.

If Bitcoin continues upward and breaks the wedge to the upside, targets between $130K and $140K come into play, with a potential extension toward $150K in a final euphoric leg.

But if price loses the lower boundary near $102K, that would confirm a structural breakdown—a clear signal that the bull market has ended and that a new crypto winter is beginning to take shape.

Bitcoin has already absorbed one of the largest macro-driven corrections in its history—and survived. What happens next inside this wedge will determine whether that resilience was a reset before continuation or the final breath before rotation.

BTC/USD Weekly Chart on 20/10/25 

Ethereum—Retesting the Break, Decision Time

Ethereum has broken below its ascending trendline, which had served as support since mid-summer 2024. The breakdown shifts the structure from consolidation to early distribution—a sign that momentum is weakening across higher timeframes.

Right now, ETH is retesting the broken trendline from below. This is the critical pivot point that will decide whether the move was a false break or the start of a deeper decline. If the retest fails and price turns lower again, the next key liquidity zone lies near $3,200–$3,400, where the market last built major demand.

To regain strength, ETH would need to reclaim the trendline and move back into the triangle formation around $4,300–$4,500. Only a sustained recovery above that range would restore the bullish structure and reopen targets toward $5,000–$5,500.

The structure is still recoverable—but not forgiving. Ethereum has lost its clean technical alignment, and the coming days will show whether it can rejoin the broader bullish narrative or its cycle is over.

ETH/USD Daily Chart on 20/10/25 

Conclusion—The Market Learning to Move Alone

The fourth quarter of 2025 began without guidance, but not without direction. The shutdown muted Washington, froze data, and silenced central banks—yet markets kept moving. Liquidity didn’t vanish; it adapted. Prices became the new language of policy, and traders learned to read momentum instead of minutes.

Bitcoin has proven it can withstand historic shocks and still find equilibrium. Ethereum, though under pressure, continues to respect its long-term structure. Together they illustrate the same truth: markets no longer need permission to evolve.

This quarter is not about forecasts or interventions—it’s about endurance. The absence of data has exposed what really drives price: liquidity, positioning, and conviction. For now, that conviction still leans risk-on.

When the numbers return and the noise resumes, the lesson of this silence will remain: the market doesn’t wait for the Fed—it moves first.

Disclaimer: The opinions expressed in this article are the author's own and do not necessarily reflect the views of CoinGecko. This content is for informational purposes only and should not be construed as financial, investment, or any other form of advice. CoinGecko does not guarantee the accuracy or completeness of the information presented and is not liable for any decisions made based on this content.