Crude Oil and Gold Leading All Other Asset Classes in early-2026, as BTC is Worst Performing Asset Thus Far

After a tumultous end to 2025, Bitcoin continued its slide downwards at the start of 2026. Meanwhile, geopolitical and macroeconomic events have fueled the rise of Gold, Silver and more recently Crude Oil. As mainstream adoption of crypto as an asset class continues to expand, many Wall Street investors may be experiencing their first crypto bear market. We examine how crypto is performing relative to other traditional asset classes at the onset of 2026.

With Onset of War in Iran, Surge in Crude Oil Prices Outpaces All Other Asset Classes in 2026

The price of Crude Oil had been slowly appreciating since the start of 2026, as rising tensions in the Middle East, coupled with supply shortages in key markets drove prices higher. However it all came to a head as the US and Israel launched their latest attack on Iran on February 28, 2026. The price reached as high as $119.48 in intraday trading, after starting the year at $57.41.

Meanwhile the price of bitcoin (BTC) continued to slide into 2026, marking it out as the worst-performing asset class thus far. However, it seems to have found support more recently since the start of March, oscillating within the $65 - 75k range after falling as low as $62.8k at the start of February. US Spot BTC ETFs have seen strong inflows since the end of Feb (+$1.9B since Feb 20, still -$828.9M YTD but improving), while Michael Saylor’s Strategy (MSTR.US) continued its consistent buying with $5.6B deployed since the start of the year.

Crypto Only Showing Moderate Correlation With S&P500 and Gold in 2026 Thus Far, Perhaps a Sign That the Asset Class Is Finally Decoupling

Since the start of the year, the correlation between total crypto market cap and the S&P500 is at 0.49, indicating moderate positive correlation. This is a continuation of what we witnessed in 2025 where annual correlation between the two asset classes was 0.46. On the other hand, crypto’s YTD correlation with gold has flipped to -0.69, indicating moderate negative correlation. Crypto / Gold correlation in 2025 was 0.19, indicating weak to no correlation. Combined, these could be signs that crypto as an asset class is breaking away from long-held assumptions of being a purely risk-on asset, as it decouples from US equities. 

US equities, represented by the S&P500, have also had to weather significant headwinds in 2026. Despite larger and larger investments into AI, and generally strong economic and earnings data, the index has actually declined since the start of the year. Geopolitical tensions have definitely played a role, but there is also ongoing uncertainty surrounding the impact of AI on the future of the economy and labor force, culminating in “SaaS-pocalypse”. Between $1.3T - 1.5T has been wiped from the market caps of publicly traded software and SaaS companies since the start of the year, with a corresponding collapse in forward P/E and revenue multiples. 

Finally, Gold continues its hot streak since 2024, already up by more than 20% since the start of the year. What is generally considered a steady store-of-value, safe-haven asset is now displaying heightened volatility, driven by its meteoric rise in price. Ongoing geopolitical and macroeconomic tensions continue to fuel its upward momentum, with retail traders and nation states alike piling in.

The previous article was published in December 2024

Bitcoin (BTC), coined as “Magic Internet Money” is perhaps a legitimate investment asset alongside traditional assets such as stocks, commodities, and bonds. From its returns over 10 years, BTC truly shined with its 26,931.1% returns. Imagine a $100 investment in 2014 is now worth $26,931.1 today. While these figures are great, it's important to look at its performance relative to other assets in both the short & long term. 

Which asset performed best across YTD, 1-Year, 3-Year, 5-Year, and 10-Year time frames?

Performance over different time frames sheds light on the strengths and weaknesses of each asset. In 2024, BTC was the best-performing asset with 129.0% returns highlighting its high-growth potential. Gold followed with a steady 32.2% year-to-date (YTD) returns, demonstrating its reliability as a traditional store of value. The S&P 500 remained strong at 28.3% returns. Crude oil, however, dipped with a return of -0.13%, while US treasuries offered modest returns, with 5-year Treasuries at 5.3% and 10-year Treasuries slightly higher at 8.2%.

Looking at a 1-year timeframe, Bitcoin’s performance continues to outshine other assets with a 153.1% return. Gold has had a 34.8% return, followed by the S&P 500 at 33.1%. The strength of these 3 assets shows the market stability over the last year.  Treasuries, however, reflect sensitivity to economic changes, with 5-year and 10-year bonds posting returns of -4.3% and -2.6%, respectively. These figures reveal how bonds can fluctuate with interest rates and fiscal policies.

Over three years, the performance landscape shifted, favoring bonds as economic stability became more desirable. Treasuries led, with 5-year Treasuries showing an impressive 267.8% return and 10-year Treasuries close behind at 218.0%. Bitcoin followed over this period at 79.0%, while gold trailed behind with a solid 53.1% return, providing security in market uncertainty. Crude oil was the only asset to underperform during this period, with a 6.1% return. 

The 5-year horizon sees Bitcoin rise to the top, yielding a remarkable 1,283.6% return. The S&P 500 and gold remain stable with 96.7% and 84.6% returns, respectively, each providing substantial, consistent gains. Treasuries also performed well, with 5-year Treasuries at 157.1% and 10-year Treasuries at 149.9%. Crude oil, showing limited growth at 25.3%, appears less compelling for longer-term investment. This period shows Bitcoin’s potential for substantial returns in a mid-term investment window, balanced by the steady growth of equities and gold.

From a full 10-year perspective, Bitcoin’s growth stands unmatched at 26,931.1%, affirming its transformative investment potential for early adopters. Although other assets trail far behind, they still offer consistent returns, with the S&P 500 at 193.3% and gold at 125.8%. Treasuries, too, maintain value, with 5-year Treasuries returning 157.1% and 10-year Treasuries at 86.8%. Crude oil, however, lags with a mere return of 4.3%. This decade-long view reveals Bitcoin as the ultimate high-growth asset, with gold, bonds, and equities providing safer, lower-return alternatives for risk-averse investors. However, Bitcoin was still a relatively new asset, with a significantly smaller market cap than other assets. This smaller base enabled it to grow at a much quicker pace.

Has Bitcoin been highly volatile over the last 10 years?

Bitcoin’s massive gains over the last decade came with significant volatility. BTC price has been as low as $172.15 and has peaked at $103,679. The chart below clearly indicates the BTC cycles which coincidentally occur every four years following the BTC halving. Throughout these 10 years, there have been 2 “bull run” cycles, which took place in the years 2017-2018 and 2020-2021, and are currently in the midst of one. At the end of the cycle, BTC prices tend to crash beyond 70% of their peak. Thus making BTC to be volatile. This extreme variability underscores Bitcoin’s high-risk, high-reward nature, making it appealing to growth-focused investors but challenging for those seeking stability
 

Does Bitcoin’s performance correlate with other assets?

Volatility aside, Bitcoin's relationship with other major assets, such as the S&P 500 and gold, provides further insight into its unique behavior. A correlation analysis reveals how Bitcoin aligns, or fails to align, with traditional markets:

Bitcoin & S&P 500 

Over the years, Bitcoin’s correlation with the S&P 500, shown in the blue line, has been inconsistent, often hovering close to zero, until 2018. This low correlation suggests that BTC largely behaved independently of equity markets during that period. However, since 2020, the relationship has strengthened, with Bitcoin aligning more closely with stocks during major economic events like the COVID-19 pandemic. The price correlation also aligns with BTC’s pumps in 2018, 2020 and 2024.

Bitcoin & Gold

When it comes to gold, Bitcoin’s correlation is inverse to its correlation to S&P 500. This suggests that Bitcoin and gold (shown in the green line) often move independently of each other, despite both being viewed as alternative investments. It is also observed that the correlation moves opposite to BTC’s price. As the price goes up, the correlations move downwards and vice versa. This suggests that investors tend to shift to gold investment when BTC underperforms. However, brief spikes in correlation typically occur during macroeconomic events, reflecting moments when both assets respond to similar market conditions. Still, Bitcoin has yet to fully establish itself as a digital equivalent of gold.

Bitcoin vs traditional assets over 10-years

Bitcoin price returns versus traditional assets over a 10-year time frame are as follows:

Methodology

This analysis is based on historical performance data from CoinGecko and Yahoo Finance, examining Bitcoin, gold, the S&P 500, crude oil, and Treasuries across YTD, 1-year, 3-year, 5-year, and 10-year periods as of December 11, 2024. By focusing strictly on historical performance without speculating on future events, this data-driven approach aims to provide a grounded perspective on the performance returns of these assets.

If you use these insights, we would appreciate a link credit to this article on CoinGecko. A link credit allows us to keep supplying you with future data-led content that you may find useful.

Curious to find out more about our previous research studies & statistics? Check out this one we did on animal memecoins which have reached $1 billion!