Bobby’s Crypto Aggregate (Apr 2025): Trump's Tariffs

GM frens,

I hope you bought the dip during max fear! 

Every time we have had a major dip this year it has been because of President Trump’s trade policies, and on April 2 “Liberation Day” he unleashed the equivalent of Weapons of Mass Destruction on global trade, with eyepopping tariffs imposed on every US trade partner, with the harshest levies targeted at China in particular. 

The move tanked financial markets immediately and that included crypto as well. It wasn’t until serious trouble emerged in the bond market that Trump was forced to backtrack on April 9, less than 24 hours after the original tariffs came into force, instituting a blanket 10% tariff across the board instead and a 90 days pause on the Liberation Day tariffs. This predictably brought a whiplash effect to markets, and after a period of relative quiet, we are back to what amounts to a holding pattern.  

For now, the most crowded trade is predictably gold, the time-honored volatility hedge and safe haven asset. Gold has been the best performing asset in 2025, continuing its strong momentum since 2024. 

Crypto benefits from this trend too, as we have long had tokenized gold in our market, the main two being Tether Gold (XAUT) and PAX Gold (PAXG). While their respective circulating supplies have only increased marginally, both XAUT and PAXG have seen their market caps increase by +59% and +78% respectively since the start of 2024, reaching a total of $1.6 billion in combined market cap by the end of April. 

Where does this leave crypto? Well if you bought the BTC dip, congratulations, you could be up as much as 25% now! BTC has fared a lot better than other risk-on assets such as US equities, and many are speculating now as to whether this is the inflection point for bitcoin to finally prove its mettle as a store of value asset. 

The crypto industry has long touted the narrative of “bitcoin as digital gold” and its unique features that make it superior - ease of transferability and storage. Already with the increased demand for gold and Trump’s tariffs, there were reports of extended withdrawal times for gold bars from the Bank of England. This issue will only be exacerbated if demand for physical gold continues to rise with market uncertainty.

What’s abundantly clear at this point is that the market is going to be subject to the whims of Trump for quite a while longer. Even though we have a 90 day pause now, it’s safe to assume that there will be a few more twists and turns along the way, which means more market volatility on the horizon. 

Even if Trump eventually rolls back most of these tariffs, the current uncertainty would likely already have had costly impacts on US corporations. Decisions to move manufacturing facilities or realign supply chains take months to implement, and the costs could take years to recoup. With no clarity in sight, management teams are stuck between a rock and a hard place on how to chart a path forward, particularly as some of these policies could be reversed by Trump during his remaining term, or the next incoming US President four years down the road. 

Going into May, the old adage of “sell in May and go away” looms large for what has historically been a lousy month for crypto. We just had the 2025 Q1 US GDP data release which showed a -0.3% contraction, not a promising sign for the US economy as the full impact of tariffs haven’t even been felt yet. Already there are whispers of ‘recession’ or even the much dreaded ‘stagflation’. 

However with Trump’s many foibles, there could be opportunities for traders looking to “buy the dip”. The big milestone to watch for is July when the US economy would have felt the pricing and employment effects of tariffs, leading up to the end of the 90 day Liberation Day tariff pause, and the impending Q2 GDP data release at the end of the month. 

Will there be positive trade deals struck with US allies and trading partners by then? Will China cave as Trump hopes, and a grand bargain will be struck? Or will the US economy be in such a bad shape that Trump will be forced to course correct? All are possibilities, and if you’re a betting man there are Polymarkets for all of these outcomes. 

For now, long gold seems to be the only sure thing in the market. For the rest if you’re playing the markets, strap on as we subject ourselves to more of Trump’s volatility.

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