Ethereum Foundation Sold 100,600 ETH: Why Did ETH Pump 84%?

What are the notable sell-offs and the market’s reaction to them?

The average 7-day price change following an EF sell-off of Ethreum (ETH) is +1.3%. While large Ethereum Foundation (EF) sell-offs do trigger immediate market reactions, these moves aren’t uniformly negative. In fact, over a 7-day period, Ethereum tends to bounce back, recording an average gain of +1.30%. This indicates that despite the volatility surrounding EF sales, they do not have a lasting or significantly negative impact on Ethereum’s price.

The percentage of cases where ETH’s price declined within 7 days of an EF sell-off is -47.6%. These results indicate that less than half of EF sell-offs result in an immediate price decline. In most cases, EF’s sales activities do not cause Ethereum’s price to plummet. On May 17, 2021, for example, a sale caused ETH’s price to dip by -41.1% within a week while on Jun 1, 2018, the sale of 70k ETH caused a pump of +37.7% within the week.

The largest single-week drop recorded after an EF sale was -41.1%. Some sell-offs lead to pronounced short-term reactions; a notable instance on May 17, 2021 saw the price plummet by -41.1% within one week. However, this level of decline is not universal, as other large transactions sometimes coincide with price increases instead.

Despite large sell-offs, ETH’s price rose in 164 cases, while it declined in 149 cases. This mixed outcome shows that EF’s spending does not guarantee a negative market reaction. For example, on June 1, 2018, a sell-off of 70,000 ETH triggered a price pump of +29.4% in 3-days and +37.7% in 7-days highlighting that the market’s response can be quite varied and sometimes even positive.

Over 30 days, the average price change post-sell-off is +8.9%. While immediate price swings can be dramatic, the longer-term picture is more balanced. Over a 30-day period, the average change settles at +8.9%, suggesting that any initial volatility often smooths out as the market recovers.

How do EF spending habits affect Ethereum prices?

To further explore the relationship between EF’s spending and ETH price action, we analyze rolling correlations over three timeframes: 3-day, 7-day, and 30-day.

Short-Term Correlations (3-Day Rolling Correlation)

The 3-day rolling correlation fluctuates widely, ranging from -0.999 (strong inverse relationship) to +0.999 (strong positive relationship). This extreme volatility suggests that short-term price movements may not be strongly influenced by EF’s spending but rather by broader market conditions.

For example, on Nov 19, 2020, the rolling correlation reached 0.9998 after EF sold 16,390 ETH, and ETH’s price rose from $479 to $560 (+16.9%) in four days. However, on Sep 24, 2020, a rolling correlation of -0.9892 was observed when EF sold 141 ETH, and ETH’s price dropped -9% over three days. These cases highlight how short-term correlations are highly sensitive to market sentiment and liquidity rather than being triggered due to EF’s spending.

Moderate Stability in 7-Day Correlations

Compared to the 3-day correlation, the 7-day rolling correlation exhibits less volatility, with values generally fluctuating between -0.7 and +0.7. This indicates a more stable, yet still inconsistent, relationship between EF spending and ETH price over a weekly timeframe.

A notable instance occurred in December 2020, when EF sold 100,600 ETH, and ETH’s price increased +7.0% over the following week. The rolling correlation at this time was 0.516, suggesting a short-term bullish sentiment. In contrast, in May 2023, EF sold 15,000 ETH, and ETH’s price declined -6.0%, with a rolling correlation of -0.607, implying a more negative market reaction.

Overall, while some correlations appear to reflect the short-term impact of large EF sales, they remain inconsistent, with other market forces likely playing a more dominant role in determining price action.

Long-Term Trends (30-Day Rolling Correlation)

The 30-day rolling correlation provides insights into broader market trends. Between 2018 and 2020, the correlation was predominantly positive, often exceeding 0.3. This suggests that EF’s funding activities may have contributed to market confidence and growth during early ecosystem expansion phases, particularly in bear markets.

However, from 2021 onward, the correlation has increasingly trended towards neutral or negative values. This shift likely reflects Ethereum’s market maturation and the influence of larger macroeconomic forces. For instance, the 2021–2024 period saw frequent negative correlations, with values often below 0, as external factors such as Federal Reserve rate hikes, Bitcoin dominance, and broader crypto market cycles played a more significant role in ETH’s price action.

EF’s spending distribution against ETH’s price

The sales distribution reveals no significant positive correlation between ETH price changes and sales of less than 9,000 ETH. However, when larger amounts of ETH are sold, a stronger positive correlation appears to emerge in most cases, as evidenced by the trend line on the scatter plot.

The histogram analysis reveals that the 30-day rolling correlation between EF spending and ETH price is mostly concentrated between -0.3 and 0.5, indicating a weak to moderate relationship. The 7-day rolling correlation follows a similar distribution but shows more fluctuations, with values spread between -0.4 and 0.5, suggesting short-term volatility. The 3-day rolling correlation is more extreme, with high concentrations at both -1 to -0.7 and 0.7 to 1.0, highlighting sharp but inconsistent short-term reactions to EF sales. Overall, these findings reinforce that while EF sell-offs may impact price movement in the short term, longer-term correlations remain weak and inconsistent.

Notable sell-offs by the Ethereum Foundation

The table below outlines some of the notable sell-offs of by ETH by the Ethereum Foundation.

Summary

EF’s sell-offs over the analyzed period reveal an inconsistent relationship with ETH’s price movements, where high-profile transactions sometimes coincide with dramatic pumps or crashes. Notable events—such as the sale of 100,600 ETH followed by an +84% surge and a 35,053 ETH sale leading to a -41% drop—underscore this variability. Short-term impacts, reflected in highly volatile 3-day and 7-day correlations, contrast with the weak to moderate trends observed over a 30-day period. Overall, while EF’s sales can trigger immediate price reactions, broader market forces appear to have a more decisive influence on ETH’s long-term trajectory.

Methodology

The study analyzed Ethereum Foundation (EF) sell-offs from October 16, 2017 to January 15, 2025, using publicly available on-chain data from Dune, Etherscan and CoinGecko. Only ETH transactions above 100 ETH were taken into consideration. The dataset includes all major EF transactions, recording ETH amounts sold, price at sale, and subsequent price changes over 3-day, 7-day, and 30-day periods.

Rolling correlation analysis was conducted using 3-day, 7-day, and 30-day timeframes to measure the relationship between EF sales and ETH price movements. The analysis does not take any market trends or macroeconomic events into consideration.