How Deep Into the Bear Market Are We?

The Current Bear Cycle Is 233 Days In

The current Bitcoin bear market has now lasted 233 days as of June 24, 2026, this makes it the fourth longest bear cycle, out of the 7 that has occurred since 2014. In this study, we define each bear market cycle as any period where Bitcoin trades under its 200 Day Moving Average (200D MA) for 30 or more consecutive days.

The moving average is a technical indicator that smooths out short-term price fluctuations to identify the broader trend. A 200-day moving average (200D MA) specifically tracks the average closing price over the prior 200 days, making it a widely used benchmark for assessing long-term market direction.

Bitcoin's two longest bear markets, the 2018–2019 cycle (385 days) and the 2022–2023 cycle (381 days), were both structural post-ATH collapses driven by excess leverage and broken confidence. The 2018–2019 bear followed the ICO mania peak of late 2017, unwinding as retail speculation evaporated and regulatory scrutiny mounted globally. The 2022–2023 bear was triggered by the collapse of the Terra/LUNA ecosystem in May 2022, which cascaded into the bankruptcies of Three Arrows Capital, Celsius, and ultimately FTX, wiping out institutional confidence and dragging Bitcoin below $16,000 by November 2022.

The 2014–2015 bear (321 days) was a result of the collapse of Mt. Gox, then the world's largest Bitcoin exchange, which erased trust in the nascent market entirely.

The remaining four episodes were shorter and driven by more isolated shocks. The 2019–2020 pullback (81 days) and 2021 mid-cycle correction (80 days) were transient, the former a mid-recovery consolidation, the latter a China mining ban that temporarily crashed hash rate and sentiment. The 2020 COVID crash (52 days) was the sharpest but fastest, a macro liquidity shock that resolved as global stimulus flooded markets. The current 2025–2026 bear, now at 233 days at the time of analysis, appears rooted in a broader macro shift: rising interest rate uncertainty, fading post-halving momentum, and a rotation towards AI as a speculative asset class, all weighing on Bitcoin after it reached its January 2025 all-time high of $124,773.

How Bad was Each Bear Market Cycle?

The 2025–2026 bear is actually the mildest on record so far (fingers crossed), with a maximum drawdown of -51.2% from Bitcoin's all-time high of $124,773. Every prior bear market cycle recorded a deeper drawdown, with the three major structural bears each falling between -76.7% and -83.6% from their respective peaks. The closest comparable is the 2021 mid-cycle correction at -52.9%, though that episode lasted only 80 days and occurred within a broader bull trend rather than as a standalone bear cycle.

The two most destructive cycles on record were the 2018–2019 bear (-83.6%) and the 2014–2015 bear (-81.6%), both of which wiped out the vast majority of Bitcoin's prior gains before recovering. The 2022–2023 cycle (-76.7%) was similarly severe, dragging Bitcoin from an all-time high of $67,617 down to $15,742 at its November 2022 low. Even the shorter, shock-driven episodes inflicted significant damage: the 2020 COVID crash recorded a -74.4% drawdown despite lasting only 52 days, underscoring how quickly sentiment and liquidity can deteriorate in crypto markets. That the current cycle has so far avoided this level of destruction may reflect a more resilient market structure, deeper institutional participation, or simply the fact that the bear is not yet over.

Is Recovery In Sight?

As of June 24, 2026, Bitcoin's 200D MA sits at $76,450 while the spot price is $62,651 — a gap of 22.0%. Reclaiming the 200D MA would require a sustained rally of more than one-fifth from current levels, and historically the 200D MA has acted as strong resistance on the way back up, not just support on the way down.

Bitcoin is currently approximately 2.9% above its cycle bottom of $60,861 set on June 7, 2026. In prior major bears, the period between the confirmed bottom and the eventual 200D MA reclaim ranged from 65 days (2022–2023 cycle) to 166 days (2014–2015 cycle). If June 7 holds as the bottom (which cannot be confirmed until more time has passed), even the fastest historical recovery would put the 200D MA reclaim in August 2026 at the earliest.

Methodology

Bitcoin daily closing price data was sourced from CoinGecko covering January 1, 2014 through June 24, 2026. The 200-day moving average was calculated as a simple rolling average of the prior 200 daily closing prices. A bear market episode was defined as any continuous stretch where Bitcoin's closing price remained below its 200D MA for 30 or more consecutive days, in order to exclude brief wicks and noise. Max drawdown was calculated from the all-time high recorded prior to the first day of each episode to the lowest daily close recorded during that episode. The current episode remains ongoing as of the publication date.

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Related: Top 10 Cryptos by Market Cap Through the Years (2014–2026)

This study is for illustrative and informational purposes only, and is not financial advice.

Raw Data: Bear Markets at a Glance

Bear market is defined as any period where BTC closes below its 200DMA for 30 or more consecutive days. Max drawdown measured from the all-time high before each bear market began to the lowest closing price recorded during that period. Data as of June 24, 2026.