Crypto Bull Runs 2014-2026: BTC Gains +130.5% on Average Each Run

We Are 33 Days In A New Crypto Bull Cycle

In our previous study on crypto bear markets, we defined each crypto bear market cycle as any period where Bitcoin trades under its 200 Day Moving Average (200D MA) for 30 or more consecutive days. On August 20, 2026, Bitcoin’s price closed above its 200D MA marking the end of the 2025-2026 crypto bear market cycle at 290 days (November 4, 2025 - August 20, 2026). When we reverse our bear market definition, when Bitcoin trades over its 200D MA for 30 or more consecutive days, is our definition of a crypto bull market.

August 20, 2026 marks the start of the latest crypto bull cycle which on average lasts 237 days across the 10 completed bull cycles since 2014. Individual cycle lengths vary widely, ranging from as brief as 31 days (the 2020 Pre-COVID Mini-Rally) to as long as 849 days (the 2015-2018 ICO and Halving Cycle Mania).

That 849-day episode is the single largest driver behind the 237-day average, running more than double the length of the next-longest cycle, the 385-day 2020-2021 COVID Bull Run. If we exclude the 2015-2018 run, the remaining nine completed bull runs last an average of 169 days, this figure is more likely more representative of how long a typical modern crypto bull run lasts.

How Much BTC Gains in Each Bull Cycle

Bitcoin bull markets have delivered an average gain of +130.5% from start to peak across the nine completed cycles since 2014, excluding the outsized 2015-2018 mania (+7844.3%). Individual returns vary enormously, ranging from as modest as +10.8% (the 2020 Pre-COVID Mini-Rally) to as large as +627.1% (2020-2021 COVID Bull Run).

Using previous averages, if we assume BTC climbs the average of 130.5% from the start of the bull run (August 20 where BTC’s price is $69,255), Bitcoin’s price is projected to climb to $159,634 by the end of this bull cycle.

However, we caveat the above projection on the grounds that gains have generally compressed noticeably since 2022, meaning we would likely see prices lower than said projections at the end of this bull cycle. Specifically, none of the four most recent completed cycles, the 2023 Post-FTX Recovery (+57.7%), 2023-2024 BTC ETF Debut Rally (+156.4%), 2024-2025 US Post-Election Rally (+60.8%), and 2025 $125K ATH Rally (+33.3%), came close to matching the 2020-2021 or 2019 cycles' returns. That pattern suggests Bitcoin's growing market capitalization and institutional participation may be dampening the magnitude of subsequent rallies, even as new catalysts (ETF approvals, election outcomes) continue to drive fresh bull cycles.

The 2015-2018 ICO and Halving Cycle Mania (+7,844.3%) is excluded from these figures entirely, given its magnitude vastly outsizes every other episode on record and would distort any average calculated across the full dataset. Separately, the current 2026 Post-Bear Recovery Rally, up +17.3% as of September 21, 2026, is also excluded from the average as an incomplete, ongoing cycle rather than a finished data point.

Crypto Bull Run Episodes Since 2014

*Excluded from average gain calculations and chart visualizations due to its magnitude vastly outsizing every other episode. **Excluded from both average calculations as an incomplete, ongoing cycle. Data as of September 21, 2026.

Methodology

Bitcoin daily closing price data was sourced from CoinGecko covering January 1, 2014 through September 21, 2026. The 200-day moving average was calculated as a simple rolling average of the prior 200 daily closing prices. A bull market episode was defined as any continuous stretch where Bitcoin's closing price remained above its 200DMA for 30 or more consecutive days, the inverse of the definition used in CoinGecko's companion bear market study. Brief dips back below the 200DMA lasting fewer than 30 days do not end an episode's designation as the start of a new bull cycle; instead, each episode runs from the first day BTC closes above its 200DMA through the last day before a subsequent 30-plus day stretch below it begins.

Gain to Peak is calculated as the percentage increase from a bull episode's 200DMA-crossing start price to its highest closing price recorded during that period. The 2015-2018 ICO and Halving Cycle Mania (+7,844.3%) is excluded from the chart and from average calculations for scale, given its magnitude vastly outsizes every other episode and would flatten the rest of the data to near-invisibility. The current 2026 Post-Bear Recovery Rally is excluded from both average duration and average gain calculations, as it remains an ongoing, incomplete cycle as of the data cutoff date.

Average duration (237 days) is calculated across the 10 completed cycles, including the 2015-2018 outlier, since its 849-day length does not distort the chart's visual scale the way its percentage gain does (chart 2). Average gain (+130.5%) is calculated across the nine completed cycles, excluding both the 2015-2018 outlier and the current ongoing episode.

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Related: How Long Do Bitcoin Bear Markets Last?

This study is for illustrative and informational purposes only, and is not financial advice.